Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
